How odds set the price of a ticket card

A ticket card costs less than the ticket because you only get the ticket if your pick hits. How much less depends on how likely your pick is. This post walks through how that number becomes the upfront price on a card.

The short version

The suggested price of a card comes from three things:

• Ticket value: what the real ticket is worth
• Chance: the live chance that your pick hits
• Margin: a seller margin, 20% by default

Suggested price = ticket value × chance × (1 + margin)

The seller sets the final listing price. The formula gives a fair starting point, and the price you pay is the listing price shown on the card.

Where the chance comes from

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi trade on outcomes like "Will this team win the game?" The market price works as a live estimate of the chance. A market trading at 25 cents on the dollar reads as roughly a 25% chance.

We use a fresh read of that market. When a price quote is made, the chance has to be no more than 30 seconds old. If no fresh read is available, the card gets no suggested price, and the seller has to set one directly. We don't fill gaps with an old or made-up number.

A worked example

These are round numbers for illustration. They don't describe a real listing.

Say a ticket is worth $400 and your pick has a 25% chance of hitting.

1. Ticket value × chance: $400 × 0.25 = $100
2. Add the 20% margin: $100 × 1.2 = $120

The card's suggested upfront price is $120 for a $400 ticket. If your pick hits, the ticket is yours and you have nothing else to pay. If it misses, the $120 is spent.

Here is the same $400 ticket at other chances:

• 10% chance: $48
• 25% chance: $120
• 50% chance: $240
• 80% chance: $384

Once the chance goes above about 83%, the price with margin reaches the full ticket value. So a card saves you the most when the outcome is still in doubt.

Packs add up to the ticket value plus the margin

In a pack, each card covers one answer to the same question, and the answers' chances add up to about 100%. So the suggested prices of all the cards in a pack add up to about the ticket value plus the margin. One fan pays less, several fans share the chance at one seat, and the holder can be paid for the whole ticket across several fans.

Fees

• Buying a listed card: you pay exactly the listed price. If the price changes while you're checking out, the payment stops before any charge so you can review the new price.
• Selling a card: a 10% selling fee comes out of the sale price. Sellers see what they will receive wherever they set a price.
• Filling a fan request: the holder is paid the fan's offer minus a platform fee, currently 10%.
• Watch & buy: right now no service fee is added on top of your ticket budget.

The upfront price on a card is the full price of that card. You don't pay a second amount later if your pick hits.

Requests use the same math

When a fan creates a request, ParlayTix suggests a fair price using the same formula and the live chance, with no extra markup for requests. The fan can offer more or less than the suggestion. If the chance or the ticket value isn't available, there is no suggestion and the fan chooses an offer.

Why the price moves

The chance changes as news comes in: injuries, lineups, results of earlier games. When it moves, so does the fair price.

• A card on tracking reprices as the market chance changes.
• A card with a fixed listing price stays where the seller put it.
• As the deciding result gets closer, the chance usually moves toward 0% or 100%, so a card can get much cheaper or more expensive in the last days.

A market chance is a guide to what a pick is worth, not a promise of the result. Even a pick priced at 80% misses one time in five.

Two things the price doesn't tell you

• Delivery. A hit records your right to the ticket. Delivery is a separate step with its own status and timing on the card.
• The miss case. Whatever the chance, if your pick misses, the upfront price is spent.

For the basics, read how a ticket card works. Holders can see how pricing works from their side in make a pack from your tickets.

Price a pick yourself

Choose an event and seats and see what a Ticket Option would cost. Nothing is charged. Try the price calculator.